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November 8, 1999

j.ello | by the byte

     I promise I'll leave this issue tomorrow, but I wanna sum up Friday's Findings of Fact on Microsoft, and the subsequent news coverage.  We know that Microsoft has lost... we know that Microsoft will have to take some penalty... and there are 100 new nobodies on TV attempting to become the next Wolf Blitzer, by reporting 24-hour speculation. 
     So what's the real effect of what happened Friday?  Well, it is no surprise that all Microsoft competitors' stocks are up... that was expected.  Microsoft only took a minor hit... that was also expected.  If you got in on some of the competitor stocks, be careful... they are way over-valued now and they will whiplash back, Microsoft's loss doesn't make anyone else's products any better than they were yesterday - <DISCLAIMER> that's not professional advice, so take it or leave it, it's just my gut feeling. </DISCLAIMER> In fact, Microsoft stock is lookin' mighty attractive to me at the moment... and if I had two dimes to rub together, I'd probably grab some.  
     "But Jeff, Microsoft is being SUED, they're gonna be BROKEN up!"  No, not this year... and not next year.  You see, technology moves a lot faster than justice.  It'll be 2002 before the government would be able to actually enforce any kind of break up of Microsoft.  2 years!  There could be 5 new versions of Windows, 2 revisions of Office, and a hundred new services available by that time.  Windows2000 is due out in a couple months, and EVERY person who uses WindowsNT is just itching to upgrade.  I know I am.  Windows Millennium is due out just a couple months after that.  Microsoft's game station is also going to debut... and that's bound to be a hot seller.  So, with the nearsighted nature of business, next month Microsoft is gonna be considered a good buy.  Right now, it's as cheap as it's ever going to be.
     I find it highly unlikely that the DOJ will break up Microsoft.  It would take 2 years to do it - by that time the entire face of technology will be different and Microsoft will have long since placed themselves in a position favorable to win an appeal based on that fact.  But I don't think it will even get that far... it is most likely that the DOJ and Microsoft will settle in some way.
     If Microsoft stays in tact, it will be the same money making dynamo it is now.  If they break it apart, then you'll have stock in several money making dynamos.  So no matter what... money-wise... Microsoft's trial and tribulation (pun intended :) ) is your reward.  I think that no matter what the DOJ does, the net-effect (no pun intended) will be the equivalent of a rude wake-up call, rather than an eviction notice.

     Oh, by the way, I was talking about privacy last Wednesday, whaddaya know... the FTC issued a verbal warning to info collectors on the internet, now dubbed "profilers".  It may be a very minor step, but at least it's an admission by the government that invasions are happening and they may be a problem, which is a step in the right direction.  Basically, they told profilers to prevent privacy protection problems, or prohibitive provisions will be presented to pre-empt profilers' potential power to procure personal portfolios.    
     Talk to you tomorrow, I gotta P. :)

     -j.ello

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